Predicting the "New Order Trilogy"

Looking toward the new trilogy, I'll be making two posts about it.  This one will be about the political and security issues that stem from the end of Episode VI, which I think should guide the new film's plot.  The next post will be, as a movie-goer, what I want (and don't want) to see in the new movie.

The Second Death Star is destroyed.  The Emperor is dead.  Vader not only is dead, but has repented for his sins.  The Rebellion has scored a major victory.  And yet, as we saw at the end of Episode IV, destroying their battle station does not defeat the Empire.  Even though this time they also lost their leaders, there's little reason to believe the Empire, as a government, has been overthrown.

At the end of Episode VI, We see a variety of celebrations (Relevant part: 0:40-1:30).  However, the three planets showcased were Bespin (Which is the planet Cloud City is in), Naboo and Coruscant.  While Bespin was taken over by the Empire during the Rebellion trilogy, and has more cause for celebration than the others, we know nothing of Naboo's involvement in the struggle, and Coruscant is not the political hub it once was (The senate has been dissolved since before the Battle of Yavin, and the Emperor was residing in the second Death Star, which is on the other side of the galaxy).  I also recall a version of the finale in which Tatooine was celebrating, which is odd, because it's not like Tatooine benefited particularly from the time of the Republic.  Still, except for Bespin, it's hard to see any of the celebrations as particularly relevant.  Further, and in this case especially Bespin, they may be better conceived of as ecstatic riots that are later crushed by the remaining imperial forces.  They're not much different from those that in the June Rebellion, as depicted in Les Miserables.

Episode IV ends with a celebration on Yavin 4.  Episode V begins with the Rebels on a frozen, miserable planet.  That's because, soon after the destruction of the Death Star, the Empire came back to Yavin IV and routed the Rebels.  There's no reason to believe Episode VII shouldn't begin the same way.  When the second Death Star was destroyed, there were several Star Destroyers that were still fighting fit (I found three by name, and while I'm tempted to, I'm not going to spend all night researching this), and they fled.  That's a terrifying force to have lurking about completely unaccounted for.  Those imperials did not surrender.

After the battle of Endor, the Rebels have the enormous task of needing to deliver on their promise of restoring the Republic.  It doesn't matter if they're "right."  They now need to show they can deliver good governance while also protecting their realm from attack.  But they will have weak points, as governments always do.  And they still have a war to fight.  The remnants of the Empire will continue to hammer them, and every even minor victory will produce great unrest.  Some will yearn for the Empire, which at least kept the core planets safe.  The core planets are also the more populated planets, and are important to keep happy.  Some may remember the dysfunction of the old Republic (Like Naboo, which during the entire Republic Trilogy was consistently let down by the Senate) and resist a new Republic.  And Force Forbid one of those Star Destroyers falls into the hands of an anarchist.

But then we have the problem of amnesty.  After the American Civil War, there was a huge controversy about how to deal with the Southerners who had rebelled.  The Lincoln had no desire to rule the South with an iron fist, but many Union politicians refused to let the rebels get off without significant punishment.  So would the new Republic have to deal with imperial officers.  Some may be ideologically aligned with the Empire, but some may be career bureaucrats with families to feed.  If you work in payroll, the style of government has little impact on your job.  There are a lot of government jobs that aren't ideological.  Hyperspace routes still need to be patrolled, smugglers still need to be prosecuted.  How can you tell an innocent imperial from a guilty one?

And there's the problem created by the power vacuum left by the emperor.  Along with the Galactic Civil War, there could be a huge power struggle in the Empire, which only further complicates the issue (Now there are four leaders claiming to represent the Empire, each with it's own followers and military.  Defeating one only strengthens and emboldens the others.)

AND then there's the ever-present threat of the Sith.  With only one living Jedi, it will be difficult to prevent the Sith from rising again.  And the Sith would present an entirely different kind of problem for the new Republic!

Anyway, with all these competing interests, I think it's inevitable the new Republic will fail, or at least stumble significantly.  This is not going to be an easy task.  Ruling over peace is almost harder than prevailing in war.  With the Star Destroyers (and other Imperial starships who weren't at the Battle of Endor at all) lurking about, stability will be an impossible promise for the Republic to deliver on.  There will be enormous pressure from both sides regarding the amnesty issue (What do you do, say, with the individual - or more likely, the company - that developed the Superlaser?).  Whatever the solution, one side will be deeply unhappy.  Political idealists may try to find a third way to govern that is neither Republican nor Imperial.  Anarchists will take the opportunity to destabilize as a way of showing the government (Republic and Imperial) are worthless.  Smaller conflicts will break out, since the Rebel Alliance doesn't have the reach of the Empire to enforce order.    There will be imperial apologists who'll insist things were better under the Empire, or at least safer.

The Galaxy is doomed to be in chaos for decades, if not centuries.


Special thanks to Robert Cantelmo, who helped me come up with the analogy of the celebrations/riots to the June Rebellion, which is much clearer (and, frankly, more accurate) than my original analogy to Arabs celebrating 9/11.