2025 prediction review and 2026 predictions

OK, a review of my predictions for 2025.  Bold are 2026 comments.

Trump:

I think Trump's presidency will be a lot like his first: chaotic without many constructive achievements (Tarrifs). Most achievements will be the undoing of things (Reducing vaccination requirements. Unless you are an undocumented immigrant, your life won't be made worse. If you want to, do what you can to protect the undocumented immigrants you know.

Mass deportation is so difficult I don't think it's going to happen. The administration will focus on criminals (as in they've been caught because of non-immigrant laws) and preventing more crossings. The border may become much more dangerous (E.G. more armed guards with more permissive rules of engagement).  If you know someone trying to enter this country, help them do it legally even if that means they have to wait.  You can reach out to your congressperson for help, too - such as the person you know is trying to join the rest of their family already here.

There will be terrible stories about otherwise innocent undocumented immigrants and their families, but those experiences won't be the norm.  Basically true.  Tarrifs are more impactful than I expected.

How to view Trump's intentions:

Can he do it via executive action?

If so it can be easily undone by a future president.  Yes, we will have a different one in the future. I forgot about pardons, which a future president can't undo

Does he need the legislature to do it?

Then it's less likely to happen, unless there's Dem support, but those aren't the things we're gonna be worrying about anyway. "Big Beautiful Bill" is the only major legislative achievement I can think of, which is basically a regular omnibus bill anyway.  There was some crypto stuff, too.  Not much major, certainly nothing awful.  OBBBA's biggest issue is raising ICE's funding without a clear use of the funding (One time expenses like new facilities, or ongoing expenses like more agents / higher pay)

Is he just shouting stuff?

It's a tactic of his we're familiar with.  Don't let it bug you.  Don't look for hidden dogwhistles.  Don't celebrate the comeuppance of whatever sycophant of his has been thrown under the bus.  Don't let him take over your life. He's a shouter.  Whatever.

 

Overall, 2026 will be bad for Republicans.  That's a standard prediction for American politics, midterms are bad for a President's party.  We also know Trump doesn't care about most other Republicans, and his voters don't care about them either, so there's a lot of support we saw in 2024 that won't return in 2026.  This also makes regular elections in 2028 more likely (if you're worried about that). I guess this is a 2026 prediction.  But there were plenty of elections in 2025, many which Republicans underperformed in.

States:

There's an interesting court case in MA right now - a pro-Palestinian activist charged at a pro-Israeli activist at a protest who shot him in the chest.  The victim survived.  MA is not a "stand your ground" state but a "responsibility to retreat."  Read more here about self defense in MA.

But as someone who lives in Massachusetts, in a time of rising political violence, this is an appreciable story that is worth following. Both got probation and all charges were dropped.  No change in MA law or understanding, so it remains that while you shouldn't tackle people during a protest, having a gun and using it in defensible circumstances is also frowned upon

Europe: 

War in Ukraine won't end unless Putin dies. That's very unlikely, too. Right!

Anti-Russian feeling in Caucuses/Black Sea coast will grow. Unclear, don't feel like looking it up - may come back to this

Syria refugees will increase and go to Europe, leading to unrest and backlash there.  Wrong!

Middle East:

Syria will remain dangerous but in a more egalitarian way (yay?). Sorta right Without Assad on top, now everyone is vulnerable, not just his enemies. No enduring government will be formed. Right  Israel won't even consider retreating from Golan Heights until Syria proves it has an enduring government. Right

Kurdish independence will progress but not materialize.  Their hopes will not be extinguished. Wrong because there's not been much progress, but right that progress hasn't been lost.

The Israeli ceasefire with Hezbollah will endure. Right The occupation of Gaza will endure. Right  The lives of Palestinians in the West Bank will get worse, partly because of a lack of Israeli/Arab interest to improve them but also a lack of Iranian/global capability to help them - not to mention their own leaders. Right  Woe to the Palestinians - they deserve better leaders and advocates than they've got.  When the ceasefire went into effect Hamas went around killing Palestinians.  Some peace!

Anti-Iran partnerships will grow. Saudi Arabia won't officially enter the Abraham's Accords, but will increase cooperation with Israel and other countries aligned against Iran. Israel and US bombed Iran and nobody anywhere really did anything about it, so yes!

Asia:

China will not attempt to invade Taiwan. None of their potential partners are capable of assisting them. Right

Africa:

Africa will fall more under China/Russian orbit. Unclear, don't feel like looking it up - may come back to this.  I think East Africa is definitely getting more Chinese support

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So now what about 2026?  First, we're 11 days in and let me say I would not have predicted Maduro being snatched by American forces, or really anything of note in South America because last year I didn't even include that region!

North America:

Overall, 2026 will be bad for Republicans.  That's a standard prediction for American politics, midterms are bad for a President's party.  We also know Trump doesn't care about most other Republicans, and his voters don't care about them either, so there's a lot of support we saw in 2024 that won't return in 2026.  But the real question is if the Republicans lose the Senate, and I'm going to say no.

No foreign attack on American soil.

Mass deportation is so difficult I don't think it's going to happen. The administration will focus on criminals (as in they've been caught because of non-immigrant laws) and preventing more crossings. The border may become much more dangerous (E.G. more armed guards with more permissive rules of engagement).  If you know someone trying to enter this country, help them do it legally even if that means they have to wait.  You can reach out to your congressperson for help, too - such as the person you know is trying to join the rest of their family already here.

There will be terrible stories about otherwise innocent undocumented immigrants and their families, but those experiences won't be the norm.

South America:

Venezuela's government remains in power, even if Maduro never returns.  There won't be a major oil boom there.  In 2004 when we invaded Iraq we would benefit from more oil on the market because we imported most of our oil.  But now we do fracking and mostly export oil.  As an exporter, we don't benefit from more oil on the market in the way we did as an importer.  But Venezuela's oil also isn't very accessible, and nobody trusts the government to not sieze assets that could be deployed to extract the oil.  The incentives aren't there.

Cuba's government remains in power, even if one of their leaders gets snatched.

Columbia's government remains in power, and none of their leaders will get snatched.

Europe:

Greenland remains Danish, unless they are paid for it.  But given Greenland itself owns the mineral rights, we may pay Greenland directly.  The main issue here with global warming there's a new front between the US and Russia over the arctic, and Europe is not the only route Russians can take against us.  Greenland gives us another point of defense (though we already own anything military on the island, which is why it's crazy to have this conversation).  Greenland, however, can't afford to be independent.  It'll be Danish or American.

War in Ukraine won't end unless Putin dies. That's very unlikely, too.

Middle East:

Anti-Iran partnerships will grow. Saudi Arabia won't officially enter the Abraham's Accords, but will increase cooperation with Israel and other countries aligned against Iran.  If Khamenei dies, the regime may collapse.  As long as he's alive, I don't think these protests will succeed.  And if the regime collapses it's going to be a bloody affair.

The Israeli ceasefire with Hezbollah will endure. The occupation of Gaza will end when Hamas agrees to dissolve its government.  I think it will do that this or next year, and I choose to be an optimist this time around.  Maybe the Palestinians will finally get a chance to get better leaders!

Asia:

China will not attempt to invade Taiwan. None of their potential partners are capable of assisting them. 

Africa:

Africa will fall more under China/Russian orbit.

ISIS will continue to plague the sahel.

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