Happy New Year! For the past few months I've been thinking of getting back into political blogging. What I'd like to write about is simple: What matters and what doesn't. I see a lot of people worrying over issues that aren't really worth their time. Thinking over the past year I think I've been correct about what's worth thinking about and what isn't. And with Trump returning to office... I worry we're going to see a lot more wasted, aimless worry.
So this year every month I'll make a post looking at the news topics of that month and evaluating whether I think they're worth our time. This will also make it easy for me to check myself as the months roll on - will my analysis hold up?
I'll be using a system of ranking importance I am calling the MAIN system - a name I chose with the help of ChatGPT (I'm not good at making clever acronyms). I'm not going to use ChatGPT for anything else on this blog - unless I decide to change acronyms. I'm not thrilled with MAIN, but it works for now.
What are the MAIN things that matter? Here I've also included events from 2024 that would have fit the bill then.
Major: Very important, will impact things. (Flight of Assad to Russia, death of Nasrallah (Hezbollah leader))
Appreciable: Good context to keep in mind, but don't sweat the details (North Korean troops committing suicide in Ukraine (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/north-korean-soldiers-suicide-avoid-capture-ukraine-russia-rcna185625), Israeli settler violence in West Bank)
Incidental: Good to know, but of limited use beyond its own topic (Death of Yahya Sinwar (leader of Hamas), murder of Brian Thompson - the UnitedHeathcare CEO, all drama over Trump cabinet picks in before January 20th)
Negligible: Ignore this as much as possible (Pro-Palestinian demonstrations in the West, IJC warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant (Israeli leaders), and Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif and Ismail Haniyeh (Hamas leaders).
FURTHER, it is a new year so I'm going to share some of what I think will be important news stories to follow, stories it will be important to not follow, and some broad predictions.
Trump:
I think Trump's presidency will be a lot like his first: chaotic without many constructive achievements. Most achievements will be the undoing of things. Unless you are an undocumented immigrant, your life won't be made worse. If you want to, do what you can to protect the undocumented immigrants you know.
Mass deportation is so difficult I don't think it's going to happen. The administration will focus on criminals (as in they've been caught because of non-immigrant laws) and preventing more crossings. The border may become much more dangerous (E.G. more armed guards with more permissive rules of engagement). If you know someone trying to enter this country, help them do it legally even if that means they have to wait. You can reach out to your congressperson for help, too - such as the person you know is trying to join the rest of their family already here.
There will be terrible stories about otherwise innocent undocumented immigrants and their families, but those experiences won't be the norm.
How to view Trump's intentions:
Can he do it via executive action?
If so it can be easily undone by a future president. Yes, we will have a different one in the future.
Does he need the legislature to do it?
Then it's less likely to happen, unless there's Dem support, but those aren't the things we're gonna be worrying about anyway.
Is he just shouting stuff?
It's a tactic of his we're familiar with. Don't let it bug you. Don't look for hidden dogwhistles. Don't celebrate the comeuppance of whatever sycophant of his has been thrown under the bus. Don't let him take over your life.
Overall, 2026 will be bad for Republicans. That's a standard prediction for American politics, midterms are bad for a President's party. We also know Trump doesn't care about most other Republicans, and his voters don't care about them either, so there's a lot of support we saw in 2024 that won't return in 2026. This also makes regular elections in 2028 more likely (if you're worried about that).
States:
There's an interesting court case in MA right now - a pro-Palestinian activist charged at a pro-Israeli activist at a protest who shot him in the chest. The victim survived. MA is not a "stand your ground" state but a "responsibility to retreat." Read more here about self defense in MA.
But as someone who lives in Massachusetts, in a time of rising political violence, this is an appreciable story that is worth following.
Europe:
War in Ukraine won't end unless Putin dies. That's very unlikely, too.
Anti-Russian feeling in Caucuses/Black Sea coast will grow.
Syria refugees will increase and go to Europe, leading to unrest and backlash there.
Middle East:
Syria will remain dangerous but in a more egalitarian way (yay?). Without Assad on top, now everyone is vulnerable, not just his enemies. No enduring government will be formed. Israel won't even consider retreating from Golan Heights until Syria proves it has an enduring government.
Kurdish independence will progress but not materialize. Their hopes will not be extinguished.
The Israeli ceasefire with Hezbollah will endure. The occupation of Gaza will endure. The lives of Palestinians in the West Bank will get worse, partly because of a lack of Israeli/Arab interest to improve them but also a lack of Iranian/global capability to help them - not to mention their own leaders. Woe to the Palestinians - they deserve better leaders and advocates than they've got.
Anti-Iran partnerships will grow. Saudi Arabia won't officially enter the Abraham's Accords, but will increase cooperation with Israel and other countries aligned against Iran.
Asia:
China will not attempt to invade Taiwan. None of their potential partners are capable of assisting them.
Africa:
Africa will fall more under China/Russian orbit.
Thank you for reading! If you'd like to toss me some support please Venmo me.
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